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New election poll portends potential trouble for GOP

The most recent Marquette Law School Poll unveiled Tuesday afternoon shows potential significant headwinds for Republicans running for statewide office, especially among women and self-identified independent voters.

Among likely voters polled September 12-16, Democratic challenger Tony Evers leads incumbent Gov. Scott Walker 49 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson garnering 6 percent. The previous poll taken in August had the race a dead heat—46 percent to 46 percent, with Anderson again holding 6 percent.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin has also seen her polling lead increase since August: Baldwin leads GOP challenger Leah Vukmir 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, a much larger margin than the 49 percent vs 47 percent advantage in August’s poll.

The latest Marquette Law School poll also included the Attorney General’s race, where incumbent Brad Schimel faces Democratic challenger Josh Kaul. Among likely voters, Schimel has a 48 percent vs 41 percent lead of Kaul. While this can be seen as a lone bright spot for a statewide GOP candidate, an incumbent polling below 50 percent is often an indicator of potential ballot struggles.

The Marquette poll is highly regarded among political science circles for its historic accuracy in Wisconsin elections, and is headed by nationally known polling expert Professor Charles Franklin. September’s poll includes 614 likely voters reached by cell or land line and has a +/- margin of error of 4.4 percent.


 
The Society is conducting its own informal poll—at least in terms of political giving—between Labor Day and Election Day. To date, contributions to Republican candidates through WISMedDIRECT—the Society’s conduit—have outpaced those to Democratic candidates: $5,450 vs $2,100.

Wisconsin physicians who wish to make campaign contributions are urged to utilize the Society’s WISMedDIRECT program—our staff can make it easier for physicians to make contributions and the voice of medicine is amplified by coordinating donations. Contact Heidi Green at 442.3720 to get involved!

Contact Mark Grapentine, JD, for more information.

Back to September 20, 2018 Medigram